There’s good reason to think things will get better in 2026, but it won’t happen overnight, and it will be a fight to get there.

So long to 2025. As far as years go, this one has been horrifically bad politically (and for trans people, our daily lives are political). As we walk into 2026, there’s a light at the end of the tunnel and good reason for hope. But we’re going to have to walk through a dark tunnel to get there.

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Looking back to last January, it’s hard to believe how much nonsense was crammed into just one year. Donald Trump was inaugurated for his second term. He signed executive orders, one hoping to legislate trans people out of existence, and another to legislate them out of the military. He and his Cabinet have ruled by executive orders and policy changes that stretch the limits of legality, and they have gotten away with it because the checks and balances are falling apart as Congress bows to Trump.

The Supreme Court ruled in favor of a ban on gender-affirming care in Tennessee, opening the legal door to more like it. They also allowed Trump’s trans & nonbinary passport ban to go into effect while the ACLU still argues against it. Perhaps we’re supposed to be grateful that they didn’t actually take up the case against same-sex marriage on the tenth anniversary of Obergefell v. Hodges.

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While LGBTQ+ protections have been rolled back, cities have been obsessing over removing rainbow sidewalks. Although some cities are pushing back against federal attempts to remove support for the LGBTQ+ community, different rainbow street art only goes so far.

As we close the book on 2025, it’s no wonder that trans people and their families have been relocating out of red states, or even out of the United States altogether. It has become painfully clear that, unless there are some real changes, surviving four years of this, followed by the work that will have to be done to repair the damage afterwards (where it can even be fixed), doesn’t feel doable.

But 2026 is the year that might bring those changes, and I’m not just talking about the midterms in November.

Of course, there are some dramatic possibilities that could change what is happening in Washington, D.C. As the Epstein files reveal so much of Trump’s misdeeds, there’s a chance for consequences to come home to roost. Do we think that Congress might successfully impeach and remove Trump if they’re shown undeniable evidence that he’s guilty of horrific sex crimes? I don’t know if I’m quite that hopeful.

Additionally, there are more and more reasons to be concerned about Trump’s health, which means it’s entirely possible that he might leave the White House before the end of his term. Experts are watching how his mental health is… regressing, and there are questions about how much he’s actually fulfilling the role of president at this point. While Vice President J.D. Vance might not be a solution, without Trump’s cult following, he might be a more manageable problem.

But all of that is seismically big political stuff. When it comes to hope for the future, it’s the equivalent of playing the lottery in order to get rich quick. The real hope comes in the political winds we’re seeing shift: in how people vote, how they speak, and how politicians in D.C. present themselves as we head into a whole new year.

The midterms in November seem set to realign political power in the capital. The elections that have happened this year have shown a big swing away from Trump Republicans, with anti-trans campaigns failing to win votes. The House is already balanced on a slim majority, and even with Trump pushing Texas to gerrymander him five more seats, it’s a safe bet that Democrats will take the House, at least.

With that, Speaker Mike Johnson will be out of power, and the checks and balances that the House of Representatives is supposed to provide might be restored, mitigating the excesses of the Trump administration. Not only can they determine which legislation gets a vote, but they can also wield the power of the purse and more to tell Trump “no,” as Johnson should have done dozens of times this year.

But before we get anywhere near the midterms, that balance of power is already shifting. Republicans are fed up with Trump and Johnson, and they’re making moves for what comes next.

Most obvious of those is Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), who announced that she’ll retire in January, halfway through her two-year term. And word from inside the party is that she’s not alone, with others talking about resigning, rumors that Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) denies that she plans to follow suit – she has announced her gubernatorial campaign in her state – and suggestions that there may be a mass exodus of GOP reps. Trump and Johnson only need to lose a few seats to lose the House, and an empty seat contributes to that as well.

Republicans are splitting from Trump, and their grasp on the country is weakening, but the Democrats are also standing up and taking action. That’s been most apparent in Rep. Sarah McBride’s (D-DE) shift over the past year.

The first openly trans person elected to Congress, McBride initially backed off on trans issues and drew significant heat for not standing up to Greene and Mace as they attacked her and helped to instigate a bathroom bill in the Capitol. But after taking a more active role on social media during the government shutdown, she has stopped holding back and is taking the fight to Republicans.

Where those two aspects of the House collide is in the vote on Greene’s anti-trans bill, which she managed to bargain onto the floor. Four Republicans broke with Trump and the Party on the bill and voted against it. Those Republicans were lobbied by the more active McBride. It wasn’t enough to stop the House from passing it, but it shows a softening of the party’s hold on its members’ votes that is worth watching.

While Trump holds power and a majority for now, the support among his blockade is crumbling, and the Democratic vanguard seems to be finding its footing at long last. If the Republican grip continues to falter, Trump’s sway over the politicians continues to weaken, and Democrats remember how to stand up and fight, then it won’t take an 11-month wait for midterms to see a difference. 2026 will give us reason for hope before then.

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