Donald Trump is spending over $20 million on anti-trans ads across the country. While the ads are wildly unpopular with voters, they’re also making his supporters become more transphobic.

All of the ads have attacked Kamala Harris for supporting transgender people and their right to access gender-affirming care. “Kamala even supports letting biological men compete against our girls in their sports,” said one ad. Each one concludes by saying, “Kamala is for they/them, President Trump is for you.”

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The GOP is spending millions on transphobic ads. Polls suggest it may backfire.
“It shows that Republicans are desperate right now.”

According to Vox, these ads have no impact on whether people are likely to vote. A poll by Blueprint suggests that young men rank trans issues as second to last among those they consider most important, while Data for Progress found that 58% of voters — including many Republicans — think the government should not be as involved in trans people’s lives.

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Kelley Robinson, president of the Human Rights Campaign (HRC), said transphobic ads failed to secure Republican victories in 2022 and 2023. She predicts they’ll fail again this year.

“It shows that Republicans are desperate right now,” Robinson said. “Instead of articulating how they’re going to make the economy better or our schools safer, they’re focused on sowing fear and chaos.”

These ads still play a key role in the election, however. They’re an attempt by Trump to not only control the conversation, but turn voters against trans people as a whole. According to Ground Media, these ads notably increase voter disapproval of trans people, further increasing isolation for the trans population.

Ground Media’s survey showed a link between the ads and anti-trans disapproval, decreasing support for access to gender-affirming healthcare by 3.7 points, decreasing acceptance of trans people by 3.1 points, and decreasing the number of people who say they know a trans person by 3.5 points.

Vox also drew parallels between these ads and the rising tide of fascism in the United States, referring to trans rights as a “canary in the coal mine” for other issues that are becoming increasingly divided.

For instance, they cite the Southern Baptist Convention passing a resolution that attacks trans people, saying, “[W]e oppose all cultural efforts to validate claims to transgender identity.”

Meanwhile, groups like the Family Research Council have been directly working with trans-exclusionary radical feminists (TERFs) to pass anti-trans bills across the country, suggesting that dividing trans people from cisgender lesbians, gays, and bisexuals could be a key strategy. This is the exact playbook of groups like the LGB Alliance.

This rising anti-trans sentiment is a part of the growing culture war against transgender people. The effects of the war have already been seen in a 2023 Gallup poll, where three out of four respondents said that trans people should be excluded from participating in sports that align with their gender identity. Additionally, 55% of voters said that they believe changing one’s gender is “morally wrong.”

According to GOP strategists who talked to Politico, these ads are an attempt to “move the needle” with undecided voters, turning them away from trans people as the GOP seeks to attack transgender rights more and more.

These ads are also increasing anxiety among transgender people and their families. Jay Brown, chief of staff at the Human Rights Campaign, said to Politico that trans youth and families are “on edge.”

“They go to restaurants, and the TVs are on, and they see the ads. They turn on the TV at home, and they see the ads,” he said. “It’s in their faces all the time.”

Even still, these ads are wildly unpopular, and there is a solid chance that the fate of transgender rights could mirror that of gay rights, becoming a sport of “political albatross” that instantly kills support for candidates. As politicians become more anti-trans, some members of their base oppose them more — likely due to people perceiving this issue as irrelevant and “mean-spirited.”

“What this demonstrates is that attacking the trans community isn’t just a weak and feckless political strategy — it’s a deeply cynical one,” said David Rochkind, CEO of Ground Media, in a press release. “These ads weaponize trans-identity to sow fear and division, making our country less safe for everyone.”

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