LGBTQ+ people have become a key demographic to win over in elections. This voting bloc – sometimes referred to as the “pink” or “lavender” vote and largely targeted by Democrats – has slowly grown more visible and political active over the past several decades. But recently, that growth has picked up speed.

The rising number of out queer and trans people in the country, especially among increasing numbers of Gen Z voters, is its own new phenomenon.

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Queer and trans folks have always been here, though we’ve only just started to witness the prominence and power of our community over the past several decades.

It’s not that there are more LGBTQ+ people today, but rather the norm has shifted, and acceptance is growing.

It was only in 1962 that Illinois became the first state in the U.S. to decriminalize “homosexual acts” between consenting adults in private, and it would take another 20 years for Wisconsin to become the first state to outlaw discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation. To this day, many states don’t offer protections in housing, employment, and healthcare on the basis of sexual orientation and gender identity, as the federal Equality Act has yet to pass.

The world’s first transgender organization, the National Transsexual Counseling Unit, was established in 1966, and the Stonewall Riots followed in 1969, ushering in what we now consider the modern LGBTQ+ rights movement.  

In 1973, Harvey Milk ran for San Francisco city supervisor on a socially liberal platform, opposing government involvement in personal sexual matters. He came in 10th of 32 candidates, earning 16,900 votes to win the Castro District and other liberal neighborhoods. He continued climbing the San Francisco political ladder until 1978, when he was sworn in as a member of the city’s Board of Supervisors, winning the election against 16 other candidates by 40% and making national news in the process.

In 1980, Democrats took a stance supporting gay rights at the Democratic National Convention, declaring in their platform, “All groups must be protected from discrimination based on race, color, religion, national origin, language, age, sex or sexual orientation.”

Courting queer ballots

In the 90s, LGBTQ+ people were largely considered a demographic too small to be relevant — in large part because of the hostile social climate in which most queer people were unable to be open about their identities.

In his 1996 book, The Lavender Vote: Lesbians, Gay Men, and Bisexuals in Electoral Politics, Mark Hertzog notes that prior to presidential exit polls of 1988, 1990, and 1992, information on LGB voters was largely pulled from anecdotal evidence and surveys that did not use random sampling. 

The pink vote truly began to emerge in the 1992 presidential election. It saw Bill Clinton, a consciously moderate nominee and governor of a conservative Southern state, sharing campaign promises to repeal the ban against openly gay military recruits, outlaw anti-gay workforce discrimination, and appoint a cabinet-level czar on AIDS research, among other aims.

Hertzog notes that self-identified gay, lesbian, and bisexual voters were as prominent as Latino voters and outnumbered Asian voters two to one during that election. Another key highlight: A disproportionate share of these self-identifiers were under the age of 45.

Hertzog effectively predicted the trend we see today: “It is likely, therefore, that as the generations change the share of ‘out-of-the-closet’ LGB voters will grow substantially in the next quarter century… It has become increasingly clear that, while political science has paid little heed to LGBs as a political force, the politicians and popular media have put great stock in a ‘gay vote’ and, in like manner, an ‘anti-gay vote’ comprising mainly older voters and religious fundamentalists.”

While Hertzog’s notion here is nearly 30 years old, it’s eerily reflective of current American politics, with more openly LGBTQ+ Americans than ever challenging the anti-LGBTQ+ fearmongering fueled by Donald Trump’s rhetoric and the Republican Party’s descent into more and more extreme anti-LGBTQ+ positions.

The power of the “anti-gay vote” was even more prominent in the early ‘90s, as upon taking office, Clinton received backlash for his campaign promises and eventually agreed to a policy forbidding LGB military servicepeople from being open about their sexuality. 

Still, Clinton’s presidency acted as a turning point, as the number of out community members continued to expand, along with support for gay rights among allies, over the coming years.

The future is pink

The late ‘90s and 2000s led to increasing political attention toward the LGBTQ+ community from both state leaders and presidential candidates. What started with the promotion of anti-discrimination protections for LGBTQ+ people eventually grew into debates around civil unions and then marriage. 

Even though LGBTQ+ rights have been increasingly up for debate among today’s politicians, the growth of our community in recent years should stir some optimism for the future. 

A Gallup poll from earlier this year found that 7.6% of U.S. adults now identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, or a sexual orientation besides heterosexual — up from 5.6% in 2020 and 3.5% in 2012. 

The poll also found that more than one in five Gen Z adults ages 18 to 26 identify as LGBTQ+, along with one in 10 millennials aged 27 to 42.

A 2022 report from the Human Rights Campaign (HRC) projects that approximately one in seven voters will be LGBTQ+ by 2030 and will grow to one in five by 2040.

The Democratic Party remains the main supporter of LGBTQ+ people, and the HRC report predicts that the voting bloc’s continued surge could tip the scales in traditionally red states, with queer (likely Democratic) voters effectively pushing them into more purple territory.

That’s not to say that all LGBTQ+ Americans align solely with Democrats. A 2024 Independent Center poll of 600 LGBTQ+ voters found that 30% identify as “ moderate centrist/independent,” similar figures to a 2013 Pew poll on the same topic. On a scale of 0 to 10 (0 being the most liberal and 10 being the most conservative), the average response was 3.9 for the 2024 poll.

The Republican Party has clearly positioned itself against the LGBTQ+ community, as evidenced by the record numbers of anti-LGBTQ+ legislation introduced and passed at the state level over the past few years. These have included brutal attacks against trans people, along with re-emerging platforms against marriage equality and in favor of conversion therapy.

While the political opinions of LGBTQ+ voters may not be a monolith, the Independent Center poll found that stances on the community are a major indication of who LGBTQ+ voters support, with 73% saying these issues are equally or more important than others in deciding how they vote. 

So as long as Republicans remain as staunchly anti-LGBTQ+ as they are right now, they are unlikely to gain LGBTQ+ votes, even among those who align with their platform overall. And as more queer and trans teens reach voting age, the data suggests they are more likely to align with the party standing behind them. In short, Democrats will continue gaining the majority of the growing pink vote.

While this may be a tumultuous time for the LGBTQ+ community, we can take some solace in knowing that our collective voice is only getting louder, and we can relish in our power growing so rapidly given that just thirty years ago,  we were hardly a blip on the radar.

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