Nine states are now seeing Republican efforts to overturn Obergefell v. Hodges, the 2015 Supreme Court decision that legalized marriage equality in all 50 states. This is a new trend; state Republican lawmakers have been focused on rolling back trans rights since 2020.

In five of the states — Idaho, Michigan, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota — Republican lawmakers have introduced resolutions calling for the Supreme Court to overturn Obergefell. Those measures have been passed by at least one chamber of the state legislature in Idaho and North Dakota.

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In the four other states – Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas – Republican legislators have introduced bills to privilege heterosexual marriages, with some of the states referring to a new institution called “covenant marriage,” which would be limited to heterosexual couples. The point there, according to the sponsor of one such bill in Oklahoma, is to create inequality in marriage rights between opposite- and same-sex couples and invite a legal challenge that could be taken to the Supreme Court to overturn Obergefell.

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Two justices on the Supreme Court have openly stated that they want to overturn Obergefell, and the Court has moved to the right since 2015. Justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Anthony Kennedy, and Stephen Breyer were all in the Obergefell majority but have either retired or passed away in the last ten years. Only one was replaced by a Democratic president. It is not clear if there are the five votes needed to protect marriage equality on the Court if it were to take up a test case.

Thirty-five states have amendments or statutes banning same-sex marriage, and most would likely go into effect if the Supreme Court were to overturn Obergefell. Because of the 2022 federal Respect for Marriage Act, though, state and federal governments would have to recognize same-sex marriages performed in other states.

“It’s good to anticipate things that could happen in order that we do our best job preparing ourselves,” Jenny Pizer, chief legal officer of Lambda Legal, told LGBTQ Nation last month. “The bottom line for people is that, if there are things that you can do to secure your relationships, your family status and to take other protective measures, please do those things. Don’t be lulled into complacency by our informed and reasonably expert speculation about what may happen.”

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