Special elections today in Florida and Wisconsin — featuring anti-LGBTQ+ candidates — could gauge how voters feel about Republicans 71 days into the president’s chaotic second term. Florida voters will fill two U.S. House seats which could threaten or aid the GOP’s already slim House majority, and Wisconsin voters will fill a seat on the state Supreme Court (which would determine its political tilt) and also a state superintendent seat and a voter ID ballot measure.

Florida’s election will fill the House seats vacated by anti-LGBTQ+ former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), who resigned after his failed nomination to become attorney general, and former Rep. Michael Waltz (R-FL), who vacated his seat in January to become White House national security adviser. Waltz has recently faced disapproval for his role in a security leak that revealed secret U.S. military plans.

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Republican candidates, outgoing state Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis and outgoing state Sen. Randy Fine, were both endorsed by the president in their primary elections and both are running to represent districts that the president won by over 30 points in the last election. Patronis and Fine will face their respective Democratic opponents, firearm reform activist Gay Valimont and public school educator Josh Weil, who have outraised and outspent their opponents by over $4.4 million and $8 million, respectively, the Associated Press reported.

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Special elections tend to have low voter turnout, but more Floridians may vote in order to express their feelings about congressional Republicans who have done little to oppose the president’s unconstitutional and illegal freezing of federal funds and purging of federal workers.

Patronis and Fine both have anti-LGBTQ+ histories. During his time as the state chief financial officer, Patronis picked Russell Weigel to run the Office of Financial Regulation, Florida Politics reported. Weigel identifies himself as an “active supporter of the Christian Family Coalition,” an anti-LGBTQ+ group that supports transphobic bathroom bans and the right to fire employees for being LGBTQ+.

Fine was an architect of his state’s ban on gender-affirming care for trans youth, filed a bill banning drag performances in the state (which was subsequently blocked by courts), led attacks on Disney after the company opposed the state’s “Don’t Say Gay” laws, and introduced a bill to ban Pride flags from public buildings. He has previously said that the government “ought to” erase the LGBTQ+ community.

Fine is currently leading Weil by only 4 points in recent political polling, even though Waltz won his election in the same district just in November by over 30 points. If Fine loses his election to Weil, political commentators predict that the president may fire Waltz, blaming his unpopularity over the aforementioned security leak. Thus far, no White House officials have faced discipline for the leak.

Meanwhile, in Wisconsin, Republican Brad Schimel will face off against Democrat Susan Crawford for a state Supreme Court seat that will determine the court’s political lean (which is currently split 3-3). A recent poll has shown Crawford leading over Schimel by seven points, even though the president endorsed Schimel.

Schimel has made several appearances at Alliance Defending Freedom events, the Christian Nationalist legal organization that was certified as an anti-LGBTQ+ hate group by the Southern Poverty Law Center. During this election, Schimel aired an anti-trans ad attacking Crawford for supporting trans rights to public accommodations and gender-affirming medical care.

Democratic incumbent Jill Underly, Republican Brittany Kinser, and unaffiliated candidate Adrianne Melby are running for Wisconsin’s superintendent of public instruction, a seat that oversees the state’s schools. The voter ID ballot measure would add the ID requirement to the state’s constitution, something that would make it harder for future state legislatures to overturn. The president supports the ballot measure.

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