In just one week, the new Congress will be in session, and the first order of business for the House will be to elect a Speaker. Early signs point to a tough road for Mike Johnson retaining the position. Thanks to an even narrower GOP marjority than last Congress, just two defections from the GOP ranks means the end of his speakership.
Johnson, whose career was launched at the anti-LGBTQ legal group Alliance Defending Freedom, won the job in October 2023 after a small group of far-right Republicans turned on then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy. In a sign of the disarray within the GOP ranks, Johnson succeeded only after three other candidates had failed.
While Johnson may have been the compromise candidate then, he now has a track record, which many members of the ultra-conservative Freedom Caucus despise. Almost from the start of his tenure, he has been subject to blistering criticism from his right and threatened with the loss of the speakership. His primary sin, in the eyes of his critics, has been working with Democrats on a number of bills, including those to prevent a government shutdown.
While those threats have never panned out, this time it takes just two votes against him to end Johnson’s tenure. Republicans will hold a 219-215 majority, and a number of Republicans have already hinted that they are ready to move on. Rep. Thomas Massie has already said he’s a firm no, but at least four other Republicans have made statements suggesting Johnson doesn’t have their vote, at least yet.
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Most ominously, Rep. Andy Harris, chair of the House Freedom Caucus, pitted Johnson’s agenda against President-elect Trump’s. “We do need to consider whether — if we’re going to advance Mr. Trump’s agenda — whether the current leadership is what we need,” he said.
House Republicans have also reportedly been badmouthing Johnson to Trump. Trump himself has given Johnson lukewarm praise, saying that Johnson will remain Speaker if he acts “decisively and tough.” However, Trump is reportedly furious at Johnson for not being able to get a repeal of the debt ceiling limit passed last week. That was a last minute request from Trump that caught everyone, including Johnson, by surprise.
If Johnson does go, it’s not clear who would succeed him. If he does, he will have made a lasting mark as speaker by elevating his particular brand of anti-LGBTQ Christianity, including banning trans people from using bathrooms in the Capitol that correspond with their gender identities.
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