Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) knows that he’s in a tough spot. He barely held onto his job as speaker of the House last week, despite having Donald Trump’s backing. With a ridiculously slim majority, it only takes two Republican defections for him to be ousted.

The primary reason why the extreme right members of the party finally fell in line seems to have been because Trump didn’t want any delay to the certification of his election victory. The leaders of the Freedom Caucus issued a statement after Johnson’s election as speaker, saying that despite their “sincere reservations” about him, they decided to vote for him anyway “because of our steadfast support of President Trump and to ensure the timely certification of his electors.”

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Johnson’s problem is that he won’t have that excuse to lean on again. So what will he be able to do to calm the dissatisfied ultraconservatives who consider him a traitor to the MAGA cause? Johnson can’t pass the kind of economic bills that the Freedom Caucus crew wants because even a lot of their fellow Republicans find them repugnant. (That’s what led to the revolt about lifting the debt ceiling limit, even though that was a demand from Trump himself.) He may be okay with a government shutdown for a little while, but ultimately he will need Democratic support to pass any funding bill.

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What Johnson can do is double down on cultural issues, and in particular on the GOP’s anti-trans agenda. Republicans have released a viciously aggressive agenda to fast-track new restrictions on trans students’ rights. As speaker, Johnson will have the levers to make sure any anti-trans measures get pushed through to the floor for a vote as quickly and as efficiently as possible. That will placate his enemies on the right, at least a little.

Moreover, for Johnson, this will be a labor of love (or really, a labor of hate). With his background as an attorney at the Alliance Defending Freedom, the anti-LGBTQ+ legal group, Johnson will happily take up arms against the trans community (and probably the entire LGBTQ+ community).

He has already signaled that he’s willing to get as petty as possible by banning trans women from using Capitol Hill bathrooms. That’s exactly the sort of performative warfare that the far right cherishes and that gets lots of coverage in the Fox News universe. He will need that kind of positive reinforcement from the right to bolster him when he is forced to compromise with Democrats.

In the end, the thread that Johnson is hanging on will probably fray too much for him to hold his position. The Freedom Caucus gave him a one-time pass. One spending bill too many, and the Freedom Caucus will throw him out, giving a country a replay of the Kevin McCarthy ouster and its embarrassing aftermath.

Don’t expect the notoriously fickle Trump to rescue Johnson. Loyalty is a one-way street with Trump. One defeat to his agenda, and Trump will turn on Johnson in a heartbeat.

What we are going to have is two years of chaos and dysfunction, which is on brand for the GOP. About the only thing that they will accomplish is an assault on trans rights. That may not be enough for Johnson to keep his job, but it will be enough to inflict long-term damage.

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