CNN’s data analyst is giving Democrats reason to hope for the 2026 midterms.

Earlier this week, Democrat Analilia Mejia just beat her Republican opponent Joe Hathaway in a special election in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District, narrowing Republicans’ already narrow House majority. Now Republicans in the House have a 217-214 majority and can only afford to lose one vote in any bill opposed by the Democratic Party.

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Not only that, but Mejia’s win could show how much voters favor Democrats at the moment. She won with a nearly 20-point margin over Hathaway, wider than the 9-point margin that Kamala Harris won the district by in 2024.

CNN’s Harry Enten noted that it was the 7th special election in which Democrats outperformed expectations by over 10 points, which could be linked to the president’s abysmal approval rating.

“It’s an absolute disaster,” he told CNN host Kaitlan Collins.